| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ4 2025 Prel | 0.70% | 1.40% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsMar 2026 | +178k | +59k | BEAT | +201.7% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsFeb 2026 | 6.88M | 6.92M | MISS | -0.6% | |
| Unemployment RateMar 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| ADP EmploymentMar 2026 | +62k | +40k | BEAT | +55.0% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYMar 2026 | 3.5% | 3.7% | MISS | -5.4% | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ4 2025 | 4.4% | 3.3% | ABOVE EST | -33.3% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ4 2025 | 1.8% | 2.5% | MISS | -28.0% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 2.8% | 2.8% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| Core CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| PPI YoYFeb 2026 | 3.4% | 2.9% | ABOVE EST | +17.2% | |
| PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.2% | ABOVE EST | +100.0% | |
| Core PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Core PPI YoYFeb 2026 | +3.5% | +3.2% | ABOVE EST | +9.4% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIMar 2026 | 52.7 | 52.5 | BEAT | +0.38% | |
| ISM Services PMIMar 2026 | 54.0 | 55.0 | MISS | -1.8% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidMar 2026 | 78.3 | 73.6 | ABOVE EST | +6.39% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgMar 2026 | 18.1 | 10.0 | BEAT | +81.0% | |
| Chicago PMIMar 2026 | 52.8 | 55.0 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgMar 2026 | 0 | -5 | BEAT | +100.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMFeb 2026 | +0.6% | +0.5% | BEAT | +20.0% | |
| Personal Spending MoMFeb 2026 | +0.5% | +0.4% | BEAT | +25.0% | |
| Personal Income MoMFeb 2026 | -0.1% | +0.3% | MISS | -133.3% | |
| Michigan SentimentMar 2026 Final | 53.3 | 55.5 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Consumer CreditJan 2026 | $8.05B | $12.00B | MISS | -32.9% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsJan 2026 | 1.49M | 1.35M | BEAT | +10.2% | |
| Pending Home SalesFeb 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | BEAT | +460.0% | |
| New Home SalesJan 2026 | 0.59M | 0.72M | MISS | -18.5% | |
| Building PermitsJan 2026 | 1.38M | 1.41M | MISS | -2.4% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SFeb 2026 | -$57.3B | -$59.2B | BEAT | +3.2% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMar 18, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.69% | — | -2bps | 3.71% |
| 1Y | 3.70% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.74% |
| 2Y | 3.79% | -5bps | -5bps | 3.84% |
| 5Y | 3.96% | -5bps | -5bps | 4.01% |
| 10Y | 4.31% | -6bps | -6bps | 4.37% |
| 20Y | 4.87% | -4bps | -4bps | 4.91% |
| 30Y | 4.91% | 0bps | 0bps | 4.91% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +52bps | 53bps | 56bps | 20–73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +62bps | 71bps | 33bps | -27–71bps |
| 10s30s | +60bps | 54bps | 65bps | 26–69bps |
| 5s30s | +95bps | 92bps | 110bps | 47–123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.90% | Mar 19 auction |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.54% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est — MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Apr 7 | 3.620%prev 3.704% · 6A 3.780% | — | +0.5bpprev +1.5 · 6A +1.4 | 2.78xprev 2.66x · 6A 2.64x | 27.5%prev 40.2% · 6A 21.8% | 9.5%prev 8.0% · 6A 17.2% | 55.0%prev 43.0% · 6A 57.8% | Recovering — yield fell 8bps on front-end flight-to-safety; indirects rebounding from Mar 31 collapse (43%→55%); dealer share still elevated above avg |
| 6M Bill | Apr 7 | 3.730%prev 3.723% · 6A 3.815% | — | +0.8bpprev +1.5 · 6A +1.5 | 2.88xprev 2.83x · 6A 2.63x | 22.0%prev 28.4% · 6A 18.8% | 9.0%prev 8.2% · 6A 16.2% | 61.0%prev 56.3% · 6A 61.5% | Stable — yield essentially unchanged; BTC improved to 2.88x; indirects recovering toward 6A avg; dealer share normalizing from prior week's spike |
| 2Y Note | Mar 25 | 3.914%prev 3.880% · 6A 3.895% | 3.910% | +0.4bpprev -0.2 · 6A +0.3 | 2.58xprev 2.55x · 6A 2.56x | 12.8%prev 13.5% · 6A 13.2% | 21.2%prev 22.0% · 6A 22.0% | 66.0%prev 64.5% · 6A 64.8% | OK — BTC fractionally above 6A avg; short-end bid supported by Fed cut pricing |
| 5Y Note | Mar 26 | 4.068%prev 4.025% · 6A 4.038% | 4.058% | +1.0bpprev +0.5 · 6A +0.7 | 2.31xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.41x | 16.5%prev 14.2% · 6A 15.1% | 16.3%prev 18.5% · 6A 17.8% | 67.2%prev 67.3% · 6A 67.1% | Soft — belly of curve weak; inflation re-acceleration fears dragging 5Y demand |
| 7Y Note | Mar 27 | 4.255%prev 4.382% · 6A 4.345% | 4.247% | +0.8bpprev +0.8 · 6A +0.7 | 2.43xprev 2.57x · 6A 2.56x | 11.2%prev 14.5% · 6A 13.5% | 22.6%prev 20.1% · 6A 20.8% | 56.5%prev 65.4% · 6A 62.8% | Weak — indirects cratered to 56.5%, well below 6A avg; BTC of 2.43x soft; foreign demand concerns mounting |
| 10Y Note | Apr 8 | 4.282%prev 4.217% · 6A 4.195% | 4.280% | +0.2bpprev +0.7 · 6A +0.3 | 2.43xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.49x | 10.8%prev 12.7% · 6A 9.8% | 23.9%prev 12.8% · 6A 19.2% | 65.3%prev 74.3% · 6A 71.0% | Mixed — indirects pulled back sharply to 65.3% from 74.3% prior; domestic directs surged to 23.9% offsetting; BTC below 6A avg; tail tight at 0.2bp |
| 20Y Bond | Mar 19 | 4.848%prev 4.812% · 6A 4.821% | 4.839% | +0.9bpprev +1.2 · 6A +1.0 | 2.47xprev 2.58x · 6A 2.63x | 12.0%prev 11.5% · 6A 11.8% | 17.9%prev 19.1% · 6A 18.4% | 70.1%prev 69.4% · 6A 69.8% | Weak — 20Y structurally poor; below-avg BTC; dealers took 12%; least-loved tenor |
| 30Y Bond | Apr 9 | 4.876%prev 4.750% · 6A 4.745% | 4.871% | +0.5bpprev +1.5 · 6A -0.3 | 2.39xprev 2.48x · 6A 2.42x | 11.6%prev 15.2% · 6A 9.9% | 24.2%prev 16.6% · 6A 20.1% | 64.1%prev 68.2% · 6A 66.0% | Soft — tail flipped positive (+0.5bp vs 6A avg of -0.3bp); BTC below avg at 2.39x; indirects weakened to 64.1%; long-end demand fragile amid tariff inflation risk |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 20 | 1.900%prev 1.865% · 6A 1.878% | 1.888% | +1.2bpprev +1.3 · 6A +1.1 | 2.34xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.42x | 10.5%prev 11.2% · 6A 11.0% | 17.0%prev 16.8% · 6A 16.5% | 72.5%prev 72.0% · 6A 72.5% | Soft — real yield buyers cautious; breakeven risk amid tariff-driven inflation fears |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |