| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ4 2025 Prel | 0.70% | 1.40% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsMar 2026 | +178k | +59k | BEAT | +201.7% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsFeb 2026 | 6.88M | 6.92M | MISS | -0.6% | |
| Unemployment RateMar 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| ADP EmploymentMar 2026 | +62k | +40k | BEAT | +55.0% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYMar 2026 | 3.5% | 3.7% | MISS | -5.4% | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ4 2025 | 4.4% | 3.3% | ABOVE EST | -33.3% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ4 2025 | 1.8% | 2.5% | MISS | -28.0% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYMar 2026 | 3.3% | 2.6% | ABOVE EST | +26.9% | |
| Core CPI YoYMar 2026 | 2.6% | 2.6% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 2.8% | 2.8% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMMar 2026 | +0.9% | +0.3% | ABOVE EST | +200.0% | |
| Core CPI MoMMar 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| PPI YoYMar 2026 | 6.0% | 4.2% | ABOVE EST | +42.9% | |
| PPI MoMMar 2026 | +1.8% | +0.4% | ABOVE EST | +350.0% | |
| Core PPI MoMMar 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Core PPI YoYMar 2026 | +4.0% | +3.6% | ABOVE EST | +11.1% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIApr 2026 | 52.7 | 53.1 | MISS | -0.75% | |
| ISM Services PMIMar 2026 | 54.0 | 55.0 | MISS | -1.8% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidApr 2026 | 84.6 | 80.0 | ABOVE EST | +5.75% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgApr 2026 | 26.7 | 10.3 | BEAT | +159.2% | |
| Chicago PMIApr 2026 | 49.2 | 55.3 | MISS | -11.0% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgApr 2026 | 3 | 2 | BEAT | +50.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMMar 2026 | +1.9% | +0.5% | BEAT | +280.0% | |
| Personal Spending MoMFeb 2026 | +0.5% | +0.4% | BEAT | +25.0% | |
| Personal Income MoMFeb 2026 | -0.1% | +0.3% | MISS | -133.3% | |
| Michigan SentimentMar 2026 Final | 53.3 | 55.5 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Consumer CreditJan 2026 | $8.05B | $12.00B | MISS | -32.9% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsJan 2026 | 1.49M | 1.35M | BEAT | +10.2% | |
| Pending Home SalesFeb 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | BEAT | +460.0% | |
| New Home SalesJan 2026 | 0.59M | 0.72M | MISS | -18.5% | |
| Building PermitsJan 2026 | 1.38M | 1.41M | MISS | -2.4% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SFeb 2026 | -$57.3B | -$59.2B | BEAT | +3.2% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMar 18, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.69% | — | -2bps | 3.71% |
| 1Y | 3.70% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.74% |
| 2Y | 3.77% | 0bps | -7bps | 3.84% |
| 5Y | 3.90% | 0bps | -11bps | 4.01% |
| 10Y | 4.30% | +2bps | -7bps | 4.37% |
| 20Y | 4.88% | +2bps | -3bps | 4.91% |
| 30Y | 4.91% | +2bps | 0bps | 4.91% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +53bps | 53bps | 56bps | 20–73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +60bps | 71bps | 33bps | -27–71bps |
| 10s30s | +60bps | 54bps | 65bps | 26–69bps |
| 5s30s | +101bps | 92bps | 110bps | 47–123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.90% | FRED DFII10 |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.54% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est — MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.673%prev 3.694% · 6A 3.703% | — | — | 3.09xprev 2.94x · 6A 2.81x | 25.5%prev 31.1% · 6A 33.7% | 6.1%prev 6.3% · 6A 6.5% | 59.2%prev 52.6% · 6A 50.5% | Strong — BTC 3.09x well above 2.81x avg; yield eased to 3.673%; indirects surged to 59.2% |
| 6M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.707%prev 3.707% · 6A 3.725% | — | — | 2.95xprev 2.89x · 6A 2.93x | 23.5%prev 29.5% · 6A 26.5% | 9.0%prev 9.8% · 6A 9.1% | 59.2%prev 51.1% · 6A 56.0% | Solid — BTC 2.95x in-line; yield 3.707% below avg; indirects recovered to 59.2% |
| 2Y Note | Apr 30 | 3.812%prev 3.936% · 6A 3.629% | — | — | 2.65xprev 2.44x · 6A 2.62x | 10.4%prev 21.7% · 6A 11.5% | 27.8%prev 14.8% · 6A 26.2% | 49.7%prev 53.4% · 6A 52.1% | Mixed — BTC recovered to 2.65x vs 2.62x avg; yield eased to 3.812%; indirects softer at 49.7% |
| 5Y Note | Apr 30 | 3.955%prev 3.980% · 6A 3.780% | — | — | 2.33xprev 2.29x · 6A 2.34x | 11.2%prev 14.1% · 6A 10.8% | 13.3%prev 20.3% · 6A 22.6% | 64.1%prev 56.0% · 6A 56.8% | Solid — indirects strong at 64.1% vs 56.8% avg; BTC 2.33x near avg; yield 3.955% |
| 7Y Note | Apr 30 | 4.175%prev 4.255% · 6A 3.992% | 4.170% | +0.5bpprev — · 6A — | 2.51xprev 2.43x · 6A 2.48x | 10.3%prev 11.2% · 6A 10.2% | 26.6%prev 22.6% · 6A 24.8% | 51.7%prev 56.6% · 6A 55.2% | Firm — BTC 2.51x above avg; 0.5bp tail; indirects soft at 51.7% vs 55.2% avg |
| 10Y Note | Apr 15 | 4.282%prev 4.217% · 6A 4.183% | 4.280% | +0.2bpprev +0.7 · 6A +0.3 | 2.43xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.47x | 10.8%prev 12.7% · 6A 10.3% | 23.9%prev 12.8% · 6A 21.2% | 65.3%prev 74.5% · 6A 68.5% | Mixed — BTC near avg at 2.43x; tail tight at 0.2bp; indirects pulled back to 65.3% vs 68.5% avg |
| 20Y Bond | Apr 30 | 4.883%prev 4.817% · 6A 4.786% | — | — | 2.68xprev 2.76x · 6A 2.62x | 8.6%prev 8.4% · 6A 10.0% | 20.2%prev 19.5% · 6A 22.8% | 59.6%prev 62.5% · 6A 57.2% | Strong — BTC 2.68x above 2.62x avg; indirects solid at 59.6%; dealers minimal at 8.6% |
| 30Y Bond | Apr 15 | 4.876%prev 4.871% · 6A 4.798% | 4.871% | +0.5bpprev +1.5 · 6A -0.3 | 2.39xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.43x | 11.6%prev 9.4% · 6A 10.8% | 24.2%prev 27.2% · 6A 22.5% | 64.1%prev 63.4% · 6A 66.8% | Soft — BTC slightly below avg at 2.39x; tail 0.5bp; indirects fell to 64.1% vs 66.8% avg |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 31 | 1.896%prev 1.940% · 6A 1.936% | — | — | 2.47xprev 2.38x · 6A 2.37x | 7.5%prev 12.2% · 6A 11.6% | 24.0%prev 20.4% · 6A 23.8% | 68.5%prev 67.4% · 6A 64.6% | Strong — BTC 2.47x above avg; dealers low at 7.5%; real yield 1.896% vs 1.936% 6A avg |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |