| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ4 2025 Prel | 0.70% | 1.40% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsFeb 2026 | -92k | +59k | MISS | -255.9% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsJan 2026 | 6.95M | 6.70M | BEAT | +3.7% | |
| Unemployment RateFeb 2026 | 4.4% | 4.3% | MISS | -2.3% | |
| ADP EmploymentFeb 2026 | +63k | +50k | BEAT | +26.0% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYFeb 2026 | 3.8% | 3.7% | BEAT | +2.7% | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ4 2025 | 4.4% | 3.3% | ABOVE EST | -33.3% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ4 2025 | 1.8% | 2.5% | MISS | -28.0% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 2.6% | 2.6% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.3% | +0.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.3% | +0.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| Core CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| PPI YoYFeb 2026 | 3.4% | 2.9% | ABOVE EST | +17.2% | |
| PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.2% | ABOVE EST | +100.0% | |
| Core PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Core PPI YoYFeb 2026 | +3.5% | +3.2% | ABOVE EST | +9.4% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIMar 2026 | 52.7 | 52.3 | BEAT | +0.8% | |
| ISM Services PMIFeb 2026 | 56.1 | 53.5 | BEAT | +4.9% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidMar 2026 | 78.3 | 72.5 | ABOVE EST | +7.9% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgMar 2026 | 18.1 | 10.0 | BEAT | +81.0% | |
| Chicago PMIFeb 2026 | 57.7 | 52.8 | BEAT | +9.3% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgMar 2026 | 0 | -5 | BEAT | +100.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMJan 2026 | -0.2% | -0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| Personal Spending MoMJan 2026 | +0.4% | +0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| Personal Income MoMJan 2026 | +0.4% | +0.5% | MISS | -20.0% | |
| Michigan SentimentMar 2026 Prel | 55.5 | 55.0 | BEAT | +0.9% | |
| Consumer CreditJan 2026 | $8.05B | $12.00B | MISS | -32.9% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsJan 2026 | 1.49M | 1.35M | BEAT | +10.2% | |
| Pending Home SalesFeb 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | BEAT | +460.0% | |
| New Home SalesJan 2026 | 0.59M | 0.72M | MISS | -18.5% | |
| Building PermitsJan 2026 | 1.38M | 1.41M | MISS | -2.4% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SJan 2026 | -$54.5B | -$66.6B | BEAT | +18.2% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMar 18, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.71% | — | -2bps | 3.73% |
| 1Y | 3.74% | -3bps | -3bps | 3.77% |
| 2Y | 3.84% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.88% |
| 5Y | 4.01% | -5bps | -5bps | 4.06% |
| 10Y | 4.37% | -7bps | -7bps | 4.44% |
| 20Y | 4.91% | -8bps | -8bps | 4.99% |
| 30Y | 4.91% | -7bps | -7bps | 4.98% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +53bps | 50bps | 56bps | 20–73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +71bps | 64bps | 33bps | -27–71bps |
| 10s30s | +54bps | 57bps | 65bps | 26–69bps |
| 5s30s | +92bps | 95bps | 110bps | 47–123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.90% | Mar 19 auction |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.54% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est — MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Mar 31 | 3.704%prev 3.810% · 6A 3.790% | — | +1.5bpprev +2.0 · 6A +1.5 | 2.66xprev 2.71x · 6A 2.63x | 40.2%prev 14.2% · 6A 20.1% | 8.0%prev 20.5% · 6A 17.8% | 43.0%prev 65.3% · 6A 58.4% | Weak — dealer share spiked to 40%; foreign buyers retreated sharply; indirects collapsed to 43% vs 6A avg of 58% |
| 6M Bill | Mar 31 | 3.723%prev 3.840% · 6A 3.820% | — | +1.5bpprev +2.0 · 6A +1.6 | 2.83xprev 2.55x · 6A 2.62x | 28.4%prev 14.8% · 6A 18.2% | 8.2%prev 18.4% · 6A 16.5% | 56.3%prev 66.8% · 6A 62.0% | Soft — dealer share nearly doubled to 28%; indirects retreated to 56% as foreign appetite for front-end softened |
| 2Y Note | Mar 25 | 3.914%prev 3.880% · 6A 3.895% | 3.910% | +0.4bpprev -0.2 · 6A +0.3 | 2.58xprev 2.55x · 6A 2.56x | 12.8%prev 13.5% · 6A 13.2% | 21.2%prev 22.0% · 6A 22.0% | 66.0%prev 64.5% · 6A 64.8% | OK — BTC fractionally above 6A avg; short-end bid supported by Fed cut pricing |
| 5Y Note | Mar 26 | 4.068%prev 4.025% · 6A 4.038% | 4.058% | +1.0bpprev +0.5 · 6A +0.7 | 2.31xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.41x | 16.5%prev 14.2% · 6A 15.1% | 16.3%prev 18.5% · 6A 17.8% | 67.2%prev 67.3% · 6A 67.1% | Soft — belly of curve weak; inflation re-acceleration fears dragging 5Y demand |
| 7Y Note | Mar 27 | 4.255%prev 4.382% · 6A 4.345% | 4.247% | +0.8bpprev +0.8 · 6A +0.7 | 2.43xprev 2.57x · 6A 2.56x | 11.2%prev 14.5% · 6A 13.5% | 22.6%prev 20.1% · 6A 20.8% | 56.5%prev 65.4% · 6A 62.8% | Weak — indirects cratered to 56.5%, well below 6A avg; BTC of 2.43x soft; foreign demand concerns mounting |
| 10Y Note | Mar 13 | 4.217%prev 4.177% · 6A 4.175% | 4.210% | +0.7bpprev +1.4 · 6A +1.0 | 2.45xprev 2.39x · 6A 2.47x | 12.7%prev 13.4% · 6A 12.9% | 12.8%prev 22.1% · 6A 20.1% | 74.3%prev 64.5% · 6A 66.5% | Solid — indirects surged to 74.3%, strongest in recent quarters; foreign bid dominant; tail tightened to 0.7bp vs Feb's 1.4bp |
| 20Y Bond | Mar 19 | 4.848%prev 4.812% · 6A 4.821% | 4.839% | +0.9bpprev +1.2 · 6A +1.0 | 2.47xprev 2.58x · 6A 2.63x | 12.0%prev 11.5% · 6A 11.8% | 17.9%prev 19.1% · 6A 18.4% | 70.1%prev 69.4% · 6A 69.8% | Weak — 20Y structurally poor; below-avg BTC; dealers took 12%; least-loved tenor |
| 30Y Bond | Mar 13 | 4.750%prev 4.683% · 6A 4.712% | 4.735% | +1.5bpprev +0.9 · 6A +0.8 | 2.48xprev 2.52x · 6A 2.55x | 15.2%prev 14.5% · 6A 14.8% | 16.6%prev 20.8% · 6A 20.1% | 68.2%prev 64.7% · 6A 65.1% | Below avg — 1.5bp tail; indirect demand soft at 68.2%; watch premium vs swap spreads |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 20 | 1.900%prev 1.865% · 6A 1.878% | 1.888% | +1.2bpprev +1.3 · 6A +1.1 | 2.34xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.42x | 10.5%prev 11.2% · 6A 11.0% | 17.0%prev 16.8% · 6A 16.5% | 72.5%prev 72.0% · 6A 72.5% | Soft — real yield buyers cautious; breakeven risk amid tariff-driven inflation fears |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |