| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ1 2026 Adv | 0.70% | 3.0% | MISS | -53.3% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsApr 2026 | +178k | +65K | MISS | -232.3% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsMar 2026 | 6.88M | 6.70M | BEAT | +3.7% | |
| Unemployment RateApr 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | MISS | +2.3% | |
| ADP EmploymentApr 2026 | +10K | +9K | BEAT | +11.1% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYApr 2026 | 3.5% | 3.7% | BEAT | +2.7% | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ1 2026 | 2.3% | 2.6% | MISS | -11.5% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ1 2026 | 0.8% | 0.7% | BEAT | +14.3% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYApr 2026 | 3.8% | 2.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core CPI YoYApr 2026 | 2.8% | 2.7% | BEAT | +3.7% | |
| Core PCE YoYMar 2026 | 3.0% | 3.1% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYMar 2026 | 2.8% | 3.1% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMMar 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMMar 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMApr 2026 | +0.6% | +0.6% | IN LINE | 0.0% | |
| Core CPI MoMApr 2026 | +0.4% | +0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| PPI YoYApr 2026 | 6.0% | 3.7% | MISS | +5.4% | |
| PPI MoMApr 2026 | +1.4% | +0.3% | MISS | +66.7% | |
| Core PPI MoMApr 2026 | +0.5% | +0.3% | MISS | +66.7% | |
| Core PPI YoYApr 2026 | 3.9% | 3.7% | MISS | +5.4% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIApr 2026 | 52.4 | 51.8 | BEAT | +1.2% | |
| ISM Services PMIApr 2026 | 59.9 | 57.4 | BEAT | +4.4% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidApr 2026 | 70.5 | 59.5 | MISS | +18.5% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgApr 2026 | 18.1 | 10.0 | BEAT | +81.0% | |
| Chicago PMIApr 2026 | 57.7 | 52.8 | BEAT | +9.3% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgApr 2026 | 0 | -5 | BEAT | +100.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMApr 2026 | +0.5% | -0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| Personal Spending MoMMar 2026 | +0.5% | +0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| Personal Income MoMMar 2026 | -0.1% | +0.5% | MISS | -20.0% | |
| Michigan SentimentMay 2026 P | 48.2 | 54.0 | MISS | -1.3% | |
| Consumer CreditMar 2026 | $24.86B | $12.50B | ABOVE EST | +98.9% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsMar 2026 | 1.49M | 1.35M | BEAT | +10.1% | |
| Pending Home SalesFeb 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | BEAT | +460.0% | |
| New Home SalesMar 2026 | 0.59M | 0.652M | BEAT | +4.3% | |
| Building PermitsMar 2026 | 1.38M | 1.38M | BEAT | +0.7% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SMar 2026 | -$60.3B | -$61.0B | BEAT | +1.1% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMay 7, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.69% | -- | -2bps | 3.71% |
| 1Y | 3.70% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.74% |
| 2Y | 4.08% | +6bps | +30bps | 3.78% |
| 5Y | 4.26% | +11bps | +34bps | 3.92% |
| 10Y | 4.60% | +11bps | +29bps | 4.31% |
| 20Y | 5.14% | +11bps | +26bps | 4.88% |
| 30Y | 5.12% | +9bps | +21bps | 4.91% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +52bps | 53bps | 65bps | 20-73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +91bps | 62bps | 33bps | -27-91bps |
| 10s30s | +52bps | 60bps | 65bps | 26-69bps |
| 5s30s | +86bps | 99bps | 110bps | 47-123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.96% | FRED DFII10 |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.64% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est - MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.673%prev 3.694% · 6A 3.703% | — | — | 3.09xprev 2.94x · 6A 2.81x | 25.5%prev 31.1% · 6A 33.7% | 6.1%prev 6.3% · 6A 6.5% | 59.2%prev 52.6% · 6A 50.5% | Strong — BTC 3.09x well above 2.81x avg; yield eased to 3.673%; indirects surged to 59.2% |
| 6M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.707%prev 3.707% · 6A 3.725% | — | — | 2.95xprev 2.89x · 6A 2.93x | 23.5%prev 29.5% · 6A 26.5% | 9.0%prev 9.8% · 6A 9.1% | 59.2%prev 51.1% · 6A 56.0% | Solid — BTC 2.95x in-line; yield 3.707% below avg; indirects recovered to 59.2% |
| 2Y Note | May 26 | 4.071%prev 3.812% · 6A 3.629% | 4.071% | 0.0bpprev +0.1 · 6A +0.2 | 2.640xprev 2.65x · 6A 2.62x | 12.3%prev 11.9% · 6A 12.8% | 30.1%prev 31.6% · 6A 29.2% | 57.6%prev 56.5% · 6A 57.9% | Solid — on the screws (0.0bp tail); BTC 2.640x above 2.62x avg; indirects 57.6% near 57.9% avg; dealers lean below avg at 12.3% |
| 3Y Note | May 11 | 3.965%prev 3.897% · 6A 3.633% | 3.959% | +0.6bpprev -1.2 · 6A -0.4 | 2.54xprev 2.68x · 6A 2.67x | 16.9%prev 13.3% · 6A 12.7% | 20.1%prev 11.9% · 6A 23.4% | 63.0%prev 74.8% · 6A 63.9% | Soft · tail flipped positive after last month's stop-through; indirects pulled back sharply from 74.8%; dealers absorbed more at 16.9% vs 12.7% avg; yield 3.965% well above 3.633% 6A avg |
| 5Y Note | Apr 30 | 3.955%prev 3.980% · 6A 3.780% | — | — | 2.33xprev 2.29x · 6A 2.34x | 11.2%prev 14.1% · 6A 10.8% | 13.3%prev 20.3% · 6A 22.6% | 64.1%prev 56.0% · 6A 56.8% | Solid — indirects strong at 64.1% vs 56.8% avg; BTC 2.33x near avg; yield 3.955% |
| 7Y Note | Apr 30 | 4.175%prev 4.255% · 6A 3.992% | 4.170% | +0.5bpprev — · 6A — | 2.51xprev 2.43x · 6A 2.48x | 10.3%prev 11.2% · 6A 10.2% | 26.6%prev 22.6% · 6A 24.8% | 51.7%prev 56.6% · 6A 55.2% | Firm — BTC 2.51x above avg; 0.5bp tail; indirects soft at 51.7% vs 55.2% avg |
| 10Y Note | May 12 | 4.468%prev 4.282% · 6A 4.183% | 4.464% | +0.4bpprev +0.2 · 6A +0.4 | 2.40xprev 2.43x · 6A 2.47x | 12.0%prev 10.8% · 6A 10.3% | 24.1%prev 23.9% · 6A 21.1% | 64.0%prev 65.3% · 6A 68.5% | Weak · B/C 2.40x softest in recent history vs 2.47x avg; indirects 64.0% below 68.5% avg; dealers crept above avg; yield 4.468% well above 4.183% 6A avg |
| 20Y Bond | May 20 | 5.122%prev 4.883% · 6A 4.786% | 5.122% | 0.0bpprev — · 6A +0.5 | 2.55xprev 2.68x · 6A 2.62x | 9.4%prev 8.6% · 6A 10.0% | 22.9%prev 20.2% · 6A 22.8% | 67.7%prev 59.6% · 6A 57.2% | Solid — indirects surged to 67.7%, far above 57.2% avg; 0.0bp tail; BTC 2.55x slightly below 2.62x avg; 5.122% reflects higher market rates post-Moody's |
| 30Y Bond | May 13 | 5.046%prev 4.876% · 6A 4.798% | 5.041% | +0.5bpprev +0.5 · 6A -0.3 | 2.30xprev 2.39x · 6A 2.43x | 11.7%prev 11.6% · 6A 10.8% | 21.7%prev 24.2% · 6A 22.5% | 66.6%prev 64.1% · 6A 66.8% | Soft · 30Y breached 5.046%; B/C 2.30x below 2.43x avg; tail +0.5bp well above -0.3 6A avg; dealers above avg; indirects recovered toward 66.8% avg |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 31 | 1.896%prev 1.940% · 6A 1.936% | — | — | 2.47xprev 2.38x · 6A 2.37x | 7.5%prev 12.2% · 6A 11.6% | 24.0%prev 20.4% · 6A 23.8% | 68.5%prev 67.4% · 6A 64.6% | Strong — BTC 2.47x above avg; dealers low at 7.5%; real yield 1.896% vs 1.936% 6A avg |
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format