Trader Alpha - US Macro Dashboard

Economic Indicators - Scorecard

BEATS 12 MISSES 8 IN LINE 12 ABOVE EST 7 39 TOTAL Avg Surp +41.2%

Indicator	Actual	Est.	Status	Surp%
Growth
GDP AnnualisedQ1 2026 F	2.1%	1.6%	BEAT	+31.3%
Labour
Nonfarm PayrollsJun 2026	+57K	+114K	MISS	-50.0%
JOLTS Job OpeningsMay 2026	7.594M	7.280M	BEAT	+4.3%
Unemployment RateJun 2026	4.2%	4.3%	BEAT	-2.3%
ADP EmploymentJun 2026	+80K	+118K	MISS	-32.2%
Avg Hourly Earnings YoYMay 2026	3.4%	3.4%	IN LINE	--
Unit Labour CostsQ1 2026	1.8%	2.3%	MISS	-21.7%
Nonfarm ProductivityQ1 2026	0.3%	0.8%	MISS	-62.5%
Inflation
CPI YoYMay 2026	4.2%	3.8%	IN LINE	--
Core CPI YoYMay 2026	2.9%	2.8%	IN LINE	--
Core PCE YoYMay 2026	3.4%	3.4%	IN LINE	--
PCE YoYMay 2026	4.1%	4.1%	IN LINE	--
PCE MoMMay 2026	+0.4%	+0.5%	BEAT	-20.0%
Core PCE MoMMay 2026	+0.3%	+0.3%	IN LINE	--
CPI MoMMay 2026	+0.5%	-0.1%	IN LINE	0.0%
Core CPI MoMMay 2026	+0.2%	+0.2%	BEAT	+33.3%
PPI YoYMay 2026	6.5%	6.4%	MISS	+1.6%
PPI MoMMay 2026	+1.1%	0.0%	MISS	+57.1%
Core PPI MoMMay 2026	+0.4%	+0.3%	BEAT	-20.0%
Core PPI YoYMay 2026	4.9%	5.4%	BEAT	-9.3%
Activity
ISM Mfg PMIJun 2026	53.3	53.8	MISS	-0.9%
ISM Services PMIJun 2026	54.0	54.2	MISS	-0.4%
ISM Mfg Prices PaidJun 2026	73.0	77.7	BEAT	-6.1%
Philadelphia Fed MfgJun 2026	10.3	12.7	BEAT	+5.1%
Chicago PMIJun 2026	56.7	55.7	BEAT	+1.8%
Richmond Fed MfgJun 2026	4	8	MISS	-50.0%
Consumer
Retail Sales MoMMay 2026	+0.9%	+0.2%	BEAT	+80.0%
Personal Spending MoMMay 2026	+0.7%	+0.6%	BEAT	+16.7%
Personal Income MoMMay 2026	+0.7%	+0.4%	BEAT	+75.0%
Michigan SentimentJun 2026 F	49.5	51.0	BEAT	+1.2%
Consumer CreditApr 2026	$20.73B	$17.80B	ABOVE EST	+16.5%
Housing
Housing StartsMay 2026	1.177M	1.31M	MISS	-17.7%
Pending Home SalesMay 2026	+3.8%	+0.8%	BEAT	+375.0%
New Home SalesMay 2026	0.580M	0.638M	MISS	-9.1%
Building PermitsMay 2026	1.413M	1.40M	MISS	-0.5%
Trade
Trade Balance G&SMay 2026	-$77.6B	-$79.3B	BEAT	+2.1%
TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026	$15.5B	$71.6B	MISS	-78.3%
Current AccountQ4 2025	-$190.7B	-$211.0B	BEAT	+9.6%
Fed Policy
Fed Interest RateMay 7, 2026	3.75%	3.75%	IN LINE	--

Markets

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S&P 500

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NASDAQ

^IXIC

Dow Jones

^DJI

Russell 2000

^RUT

VIX

Fear

10Y Yield

UST

--%

DXY

Dollar

EUR/USD

Spot

Gold

XAU/USD

Brent

ICE

BTC

Bitcoin

Upcoming Events

Events ≈ Jul 15

Jul 15

Core PPI m/m

* HIGH (Est 0.3% | prev 0.4%)

Jul 15

PPI m/m

* HIGH (Est 0.0% | prev 1.1%)

Jul 15

Fed Chairman Warsh Testifies

* HIGH

Jul 16

Core Retail Sales m/m

* MED (Est 0.0% | prev 0.8%)

Jul 16

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

* MED (Est 12.7 | prev 10.3)

Jul 16

Retail Sales m/m

* MED (Est 0.2% | prev 0.9%)

Jul 16

Unemployment Claims

* MED (Est 216K | prev 215K)

Jul 17

Building Permits

* LOW (Est 1.40M | prev 1.41M)

Bond Market

Yields · Spreads · TIPS · TIC Flows

Treasury Yields & Changes

Tenor	Yield	1D Chg	1W Chg	1W Ago
3M	3.69%	--	-2bps	3.71%
1Y	3.70%	-4bps	-4bps	3.74%
2Y	4.08%	+6bps	+30bps	3.78%
5Y	4.26%	+11bps	+34bps	3.92%
10Y	4.60%	+11bps	+29bps	4.31%
20Y	5.14%	+11bps	+26bps	4.88%
30Y	5.12%	+9bps	+21bps	4.91%

Spreads

Spread	Now	1W Ago	1M Ago	52W Range
2s10s	+30bps	53bps	65bps	20-73bps
3M-10Y	+91bps	62bps	33bps	-27-91bps
10s30s	+52bps	60bps	65bps	26-69bps
5s30s	+86bps	99bps	110bps	47-123bps

TIPS & Inflation Expectations

Metric	Value	Note
10Y Real Yield	1.96%	FRED DFII10
10Y Breakeven	2.64%	Nominal - Real
30Y TIPS Yield	2.47%	Feb 19 auction
TIC LT Flows (Jan)	$15.5B	vs $71.6B est - MISS -78%

Treasury Yield Curve

2s10s +37bps · Bear Steepener

2Y 4.20%

10Y 4.57%

30Y 5.07%

2s10s +37bps

BE 2.64%

Treasury Auction Monitor

Bills · Notes · Bonds · TIPS Last result · BTC vs 6-Auction Avg · Tail bps

Security	Last	High Yield now / prev / 6A avg	WI	Tail now / prev / 6A avg	BTC now / prev / 6A avg	Dealers now / prev / 6A avg	Directs now / prev / 6A avg	Indirects now / prev / 6A avg	Assessment
3M Bill	Apr 30	3.673%prev 3.694% Â· 6A 3.703%	â€”	â€”	3.09xprev 2.94x Â· 6A 2.81x	25.5%prev 31.1% Â· 6A 33.7%	6.1%prev 6.3% Â· 6A 6.5%	59.2%prev 52.6% Â· 6A 50.5%	Strong â€” BTC 3.09x well above 2.81x avg; yield eased to 3.673%; indirects surged to 59.2%
6M Bill	Apr 30	3.707%prev 3.707% Â· 6A 3.725%	â€”	â€”	2.95xprev 2.89x Â· 6A 2.93x	23.5%prev 29.5% Â· 6A 26.5%	9.0%prev 9.8% Â· 6A 9.1%	59.2%prev 51.1% Â· 6A 56.0%	Solid â€” BTC 2.95x in-line; yield 3.707% below avg; indirects recovered to 59.2%
2Y Note	Jun 23	4.189%prev 4.071% Â· 6A 3.726%	4.192%	-0.3bpprev 0.0 Â· 6A -0.1	2.640xprev 2.640x Â· 6A 2.61x	10.2%prev 12.3% Â· 6A 13.0%	34.3%prev 30.1% Â· 6A 29.1%	55.5%prev 57.6% Â· 6A 57.8%	Strong â€” stopped through -0.3bp; dealers 10.2%, multi-auction low vs 13.0% avg; directs surged to 34.3% vs 29.1% avg; indirects slipped to 55.5% below 57.8% avg but domestic bid absorbed the gap. Strong.
3Y Note	Jul 7	4.179%prev 4.192% Â· 6A 3.90%	â€”	-0.6bpprev +0.6 Â· 6A -0.3	2.60xprev 2.54x Â· 6A 2.645x	7.74%prev 16.9% Â· 6A 12.7%	24.75%prev 20.1% Â· 6A 23.5%	67.5%prev 63.0% Â· 6A 62.5%	Stopped through at -0.6bp, reversing June's positive tail. Indirects surged to 67.5% vs 62.5% avg; dealers absorbed just 7.74% vs 12.7% avg. Strong auction.
5Y Note	May 27	4.182%prev 3.955% Â· 6A 3.780%	4.181%	+0.1bpprev +0.5 Â· 6A +0.6	2.34xprev 2.33x Â· 6A 2.34x	12.3%prev 12.7% Â· 6A 12.0%	12.3%prev 15.0% Â· 6A 25.0%	74.9%prev 72.3% Â· 6A 63.0%	Strong â€” indirects surged to 74.9%, far above 63.0% avg; tail nearly eliminated at +0.1bp vs +0.6 avg; BTC 2.34x on the screws; directs soft at 12.3% vs 25.0% avg
7Y Note	May 28	4.29%prev 4.175% Â· 6A 3.992%	4.291%	-0.1bpprev +0.5 Â· 6A +0.3	2.52xprev 2.51x Â· 6A 2.48x	10.4%prev 11.6% Â· 6A 11.3%	11.2%prev 30.0% Â· 6A 27.5%	78.4%prev 58.4% Â· 6A 61.2%	Strong â€” stopped through at -0.1bp; indirects surged to 78.4%, far above 61.2% avg; BTC 2.52x above avg; directs collapsed to 11.2% vs 27.5% avg but indirects more than offset
10Y Note	Jul 8	4.580%prev 4.538% Â· 6A 4.35%	4.586%	-0.6bpprev -0.1 Â· 6A +0.6	2.59xprev 2.57x Â· 6A 2.46x	7.78%prev 9.5% Â· 6A 11.4%	10.73%prev 12.3% Â· 6A 21.1%	81.49%prev 78.2% Â· 6A 69.4%	Stopped through at -0.6bp; BTC 2.59x above 2.46x avg. Indirects surged to 81.49% vs 69.4% avg, with dealers at just 7.78% vs 11.4% avg. Directs soft at 10.73% but foreign demand more than offset. Strong auction.
20Y Bond	Jun 16	4.927%prev 5.122% Â· 6A 4.855%	4.937%	-1.0bpprev 0.0 Â· 6A -0.1	2.75xprev 2.55x Â· 6A 2.65x	8.5%prev 9.4% Â· 6A 10.8%	19.9%prev 22.9% Â· 6A 24.3%	71.6%prev 67.7% Â· 6A 64.9%	Strong â€” stopped through -1.0bp, deepest stop-through since July 2025. Indirects surged to 71.6% vs 64.9% avg as foreign buyers returned after Hormuz deal pulled yields 20bps below May levels. Dealers at 8.5%, well below 10.8% avg. Strong.
30Y Bond	Jul 9	5.058%prev 5.020% Â· 6A 4.898%	â€”	-0.3bpprev +1.2 Â· 6A -0.2	2.44xprev 2.33x Â· 6A 2.43x	10.1%prev 14.7% Â· 6A 10.9%	12.2%prev 25.3% Â· 6A 24.0%	77.7%prev 60.0% Â· 6A 65.1%	Stop-through of 0.3bp reversed last month's 1.2bp tail. Indirects jumped to 77.7% from 60.0%, well above 65.1% avg, dealers at 10.1%. Foreign buyers came back at higher yields. Strong auction.
10Y TIPS	Mar 31	1.896%prev 1.940% Â· 6A 1.936%	â€”	â€”	2.47xprev 2.38x Â· 6A 2.37x	7.5%prev 12.2% Â· 6A 11.6%	24.0%prev 20.4% Â· 6A 23.8%	68.5%prev 67.4% Â· 6A 64.6%	Strong â€” BTC 2.47x above avg; dealers low at 7.5%; real yield 1.896% vs 1.936% 6A avg

Tail = High Yield minus WI price · Positive tail = weak demand · BTC = Bid-to-Cover ratio · Indirects = foreign/institutional buyers (higher = stronger foreign demand) · Source: TreasuryDirect.gov

Country	GDP	CPI	Unemp	Rate
US	0.7%	2.4%	4.4%	3.75%
UK	1.3%	3.0%	5.2%	3.75%
Germany	0.4%	1.9%	6.3%	2.0%
France	0.2%	1.1%	6.1%	2.0%
Japan	1.3%	1.3%	2.7%	0.75%
Canada	-0.6%	2.3%	6.7%	2.25%
Italy	0.8%	1.5%	6.1%	2.0%

Gamma / Positioning

LEVELS: DESK · JUL 17 CBOE DELAYED · JUL 17 08:03 ET SHORT GAMMA

LEVEL	SPX	SPY	QQQ
Spot	7534	745.02	694.48
Gamma Flip	7535	750	711
Call Wall	7600	760	730
Put Wall	7520	750	700

+GEX -GEX Spot Gamma Flip Call Wall Put Wall

How to read

Above the Gamma Flip dealers are net long gamma: hedging sells rallies and buys dips, ranges compress and price pins into the biggest strikes. Below it dealers flip short: hedging sells weakness and buys strength, so moves stretch and vol expands. The Call Wall is the top of the positive-gamma zone (rally cap, pin magnet into expiry); the Put Wall is the deepest put-gamma shelf below (major downside support).

Current read

SPX sits 1 points below the 7535 Gamma Flip, in short-gamma territory where hedging amplifies moves. The flip at 7535 is first resistance; the 7520 Put Wall is the major support shelf below, and the 7600 Call Wall caps rallies. QQQ trades 17 points below its 711 flip level. Use TOTAL for structure and 0DTE for today's pin risk; nearest listed expiry is Fri Jul 17.

SPX · Net GEX by Strike

TOTALP/C 1.31

SPX · Gamma Profile

Net GEX re-priced across spot scenarios · ≤45 DTE

SPY · Net GEX by Strike

TOTALP/C 1.23

QQQ · Net GEX by Strike

TOTALP/C 1.41

Methodology: naive (OI-based) GEX ladder. Per contract = CBOE-published gamma × open interest × 100 × spot² × 1%, calls positive, puts negative (dealer-long-call, dealer-short-put convention; true dealer inventory unknown). TOTAL = all listed expiries; 0DTE = nearest listed expiry only. Gamma Profile re-prices every contract's Black-Scholes gamma across a ±6% grid of hypothetical spot levels (own IV and DTE, expiries ≤45 days); its zero crossing is the computed flip level, cross-checked daily against desk levels. The Gamma Flip frequently prints at or just below large put strikes; the pair marks one support shelf, not an inconsistency. Strikes bucketed for display (SPX 25pt, ETFs 5pt), ±8% of spot, $M per 1% move. Source: CBOE delayed quotes (15 min lag). Not investment advice.

Market Verdict

Economic Indicators - Scorecard

Markets

Upcoming Events

Bond Market

Treasury Yield Curve

Treasury Auction Monitor

Volatility & Positioning

VIX Futures Curve

SKEW - 20D History

VVIX - 20D History

Implied Correlation - COR1M & COR3M

DSPX - S&P 500 Dispersion

Vol Regime Summary

Surprise Summary

Treasury Yield Curve

S&P Sector RRG

G7 Macro

Gamma / Positioning

SPX · Net GEX by Strike

SPX · Gamma Profile

SPY · Net GEX by Strike

QQQ · Net GEX by Strike

Vol Surface

Live Market Chart

Market Verdict

Economic Indicators - Scorecard

Markets

Upcoming Events

Bond Market

Treasury Yield Curve

Treasury Auction Monitor

Volatility & Positioning

VIX Futures Curve

SKEW - 20D History

VVIX - 20D History

Implied Correlation - COR1M & COR3M

DSPX - S&P 500 Dispersion

Vol Regime Summary

Surprise Summary

Treasury Yield Curve

S&P Sector RRG

G7 Macro

Gamma / Positioning

SPX · Net GEX by Strike

SPX · Gamma Profile

SPY · Net GEX by Strike

QQQ · Net GEX by Strike

Vol Surface

Live Market Chart

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