| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ4 2025 Prel | 0.70% | 1.40% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsMar 2026 | +178k | +59k | BEAT | +201.7% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsFeb 2026 | 6.88M | 6.92M | MISS | -0.6% | |
| Unemployment RateMar 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| ADP EmploymentMar 2026 | +62k | +40k | BEAT | +55.0% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYMar 2026 | 3.5% | 3.7% | MISS | -5.4% | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ4 2025 | 4.4% | 3.3% | ABOVE EST | -33.3% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ4 2025 | 1.8% | 2.5% | MISS | -28.0% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.4% | 2.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core CPI YoYFeb 2026 | 2.5% | 2.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYFeb 2026 | 2.8% | 2.8% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| Core CPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | MISS | -33.3% | |
| PPI YoYFeb 2026 | 3.4% | 2.9% | ABOVE EST | +17.2% | |
| PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.4% | +0.2% | ABOVE EST | +100.0% | |
| Core PPI MoMFeb 2026 | +0.1% | +0.2% | MISS | -50.0% | |
| Core PPI YoYFeb 2026 | +3.5% | +3.2% | ABOVE EST | +9.4% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIMar 2026 | 52.7 | 52.5 | BEAT | +0.38% | |
| ISM Services PMIMar 2026 | 54.0 | 55.0 | MISS | -1.8% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidMar 2026 | 78.3 | 73.6 | ABOVE EST | +6.39% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgApr 2026 | 26.7 | 10.3 | BEAT | +159.2% | |
| Chicago PMIMar 2026 | 52.8 | 55.0 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgMar 2026 | 0 | -5 | BEAT | +100.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMFeb 2026 | +0.6% | +0.5% | BEAT | +20.0% | |
| Personal Spending MoMFeb 2026 | +0.5% | +0.4% | BEAT | +25.0% | |
| Personal Income MoMFeb 2026 | -0.1% | +0.3% | MISS | -133.3% | |
| Michigan SentimentMar 2026 Final | 53.3 | 55.5 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Consumer CreditJan 2026 | $8.05B | $12.00B | MISS | -32.9% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsJan 2026 | 1.49M | 1.35M | BEAT | +10.2% | |
| Pending Home SalesFeb 2026 | +1.8% | -0.5% | BEAT | +460.0% | |
| New Home SalesJan 2026 | 0.59M | 0.72M | MISS | -18.5% | |
| Building PermitsJan 2026 | 1.38M | 1.41M | MISS | -2.4% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SFeb 2026 | -$57.3B | -$59.2B | BEAT | +3.2% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMar 18, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.69% | — | -2bps | 3.71% |
| 1Y | 3.70% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.74% |
| 2Y | 3.77% | 0bps | -7bps | 3.84% |
| 5Y | 3.90% | 0bps | -11bps | 4.01% |
| 10Y | 4.30% | +2bps | -7bps | 4.37% |
| 20Y | 4.88% | +2bps | -3bps | 4.91% |
| 30Y | 4.91% | +2bps | 0bps | 4.91% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +53bps | 53bps | 56bps | 20–73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +60bps | 71bps | 33bps | -27–71bps |
| 10s30s | +60bps | 54bps | 65bps | 26–69bps |
| 5s30s | +101bps | 92bps | 110bps | 47–123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.90% | FRED DFII10 |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.54% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est — MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Apr 23 | 3.694%prev 3.704% · 6A 3.706% | — | — | 2.94xprev 2.77x · 6A 2.79x | 34.6%prev 35.6% · 6A 38.8% | 7.0%prev 7.7% · 6A 6.9% | 58.5%prev 56.7% · 6A 54.3% | Strong — BTC 2.94x vs 2.79x avg; yield eased to 3.694%; indirects 58.5% above avg |
| 6M Bill | Apr 23 | 3.707%prev 3.728% · 6A 3.721% | — | — | 2.89xprev 2.84x · 6A 2.88x | 32.7%prev 29.7% · 6A 31.7% | 10.8%prev 9.2% · 6A 9.5% | 56.5%prev 61.1% · 6A 58.8% | Steady — BTC in-line at 2.89x; yield softer at 3.707%; indirects dipped to 56.5% vs 58.8% avg |
| 2Y Note | Mar 31 | 3.936%prev 3.455% · 6A 3.577% | 3.918% | +1.8bpprev — · 6A -0.2 | 2.44xprev 2.63x · 6A 2.60x | 24.1%prev 9.8% · 6A 12.8% | 16.5%prev 34.3% · 6A 29.8% | 59.4%prev 55.9% · 6A 57.4% | Weak — BTC softened to 2.44x vs 2.60x avg; dealers absorbed 24.1%; tail 1.8bp |
| 5Y Note | Mar 31 | 3.980%prev 3.615% · 6A 3.725% | 3.966% | +1.4bpprev — · 6A +0.3 | 2.29xprev 2.32x · 6A 2.35x | 15.6%prev 12.8% · 6A 11.4% | 22.5%prev 24.7% · 6A 26.5% | 61.9%prev 62.5% · 6A 62.1% | Soft — BTC below avg at 2.29x; tail 1.4bp; dealers absorbed 15.6% vs 11.4% avg |
| 7Y Note | Mar 31 | 4.255%prev 3.790% · 6A 3.927% | 4.247% | +0.8bpprev — · 6A +0.3 | 2.43xprev 2.50x · 6A 2.47x | 12.4%prev 10.4% · 6A 11.5% | 25.0%prev 26.0% · 6A 27.2% | 62.6%prev 63.6% · 6A 61.3% | Mixed — BTC near avg at 2.43x; tail 0.8bp; indirects solid at 62.6% |
| 10Y Note | Apr 15 | 4.282%prev 4.217% · 6A 4.183% | 4.280% | +0.2bpprev +0.7 · 6A +0.3 | 2.43xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.47x | 10.8%prev 12.7% · 6A 10.3% | 23.9%prev 12.8% · 6A 21.2% | 65.3%prev 74.5% · 6A 68.5% | Mixed — BTC near avg at 2.43x; tail tight at 0.2bp; indirects pulled back to 65.3% vs 68.5% avg |
| 20Y Bond | Mar 31 | 4.817%prev 4.664% · 6A 4.723% | — | — | 2.76xprev 2.36x · 6A 2.63x | 9.2%prev 17.6% · 6A 11.2% | 21.6%prev 27.2% · 6A 25.9% | 69.2%prev 55.2% · 6A 62.9% | Strong — BTC 2.76x well above 2.63x avg; indirects surged to 69.2%; dealers low at 9.2% |
| 30Y Bond | Apr 15 | 4.876%prev 4.871% · 6A 4.798% | 4.871% | +0.5bpprev +1.5 · 6A -0.3 | 2.39xprev 2.45x · 6A 2.43x | 11.6%prev 9.4% · 6A 10.8% | 24.2%prev 27.2% · 6A 22.5% | 64.1%prev 63.4% · 6A 66.8% | Soft — BTC slightly below avg at 2.39x; tail 0.5bp; indirects fell to 64.1% vs 66.8% avg |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 31 | 1.896%prev 1.940% · 6A 1.936% | — | — | 2.47xprev 2.38x · 6A 2.37x | 7.5%prev 12.2% · 6A 11.6% | 24.0%prev 20.4% · 6A 23.8% | 68.5%prev 67.4% · 6A 64.6% | Strong — BTC 2.47x above avg; dealers low at 7.5%; real yield 1.896% vs 1.936% 6A avg |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |