| Indicator | Actual | Est. | Status | Miss vs Beat | Surp% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth | |||||
| GDP AnnualisedQ1 2026 Adv | 0.70% | 3.0% | MISS | -53.3% | |
| Labour | |||||
| Nonfarm PayrollsMay 2026 | +172K | +85K | BEAT | +102.4% | |
| JOLTS Job OpeningsApr 2026 | 7.618M | 6.860M | BEAT | +11.1% | |
| Unemployment RateMay 2026 | 4.3% | 4.3% | IN LINE | -- | |
| ADP EmploymentMay 2026 | +122K | +118K | BEAT | +3.4% | |
| Avg Hourly Earnings YoYMay 2026 | 3.4% | 3.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Unit Labour CostsQ1 2026 | 1.8% | 2.3% | MISS | -21.7% | |
| Nonfarm ProductivityQ1 2026 | 0.3% | 0.8% | MISS | -62.5% | |
| Inflation | |||||
| CPI YoYMay 2026 | 4.2% | 4.2% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core CPI YoYMay 2026 | 2.9% | 2.9% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE YoYMar 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE YoYMar 2026 | 2.8% | 3.0% | IN LINE | -- | |
| PCE MoMMar 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Core PCE MoMMar 2026 | +0.4% | +0.4% | IN LINE | -- | |
| CPI MoMMay 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | IN LINE | 0.0% | |
| Core CPI MoMMay 2026 | +0.2% | +0.3% | BEAT | +33.3% | |
| PPI YoYMay 2026 | 6.5% | 6.4% | MISS | +1.6% | |
| PPI MoMMay 2026 | +1.1% | +0.7% | MISS | +57.1% | |
| Core PPI MoMMay 2026 | +0.4% | +0.5% | BEAT | -20.0% | |
| Core PPI YoYMay 2026 | 4.9% | 5.4% | BEAT | -9.3% | |
| Activity | |||||
| ISM Mfg PMIMay 2026 | 54.0 | 53.3 | BEAT | +1.3% | |
| ISM Services PMIMay 2026 | 54.5 | 53.7 | BEAT | +1.5% | |
| ISM Mfg Prices PaidMay 2026 | 82.1 | 85.3 | BEAT | -3.8% | |
| Philadelphia Fed MfgMay 2026 | -0.4 | 17.6 | MISS | -102.3% | |
| Chicago PMIApr 2026 | 52.8 | 55.0 | MISS | -4.0% | |
| Richmond Fed MfgApr 2026 | 0 | -5 | BEAT | +100.0% | |
| Consumer | |||||
| Retail Sales MoMApr 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Personal Spending MoMMar 2026 | +0.5% | +0.5% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Personal Income MoMMar 2026 | -0.1% | +0.3% | MISS | -133.3% | |
| Michigan SentimentMay 2026 F | 44.8 | 48.2 | MISS | -7.1% | |
| Consumer CreditApr 2026 | $20.73B | $17.80B | ABOVE EST | +16.5% | |
| Housing | |||||
| Housing StartsApr 2026 | 1.465M | 1.41M | BEAT | +3.9% | |
| Pending Home SalesApr 2026 | +1.4% | +0.9% | BEAT | +55.6% | |
| New Home SalesApr 2026 | 0.622M | 0.670M | MISS | -7.2% | |
| Building PermitsApr 2026 | 1.423M | 1.38M | BEAT | +3.1% | |
| Trade | |||||
| Trade Balance G&SApr 2026 | -$55.9B | -$56.2B | BEAT | +0.5% | |
| TIC Net LT FlowsJan 2026 | $15.5B | $71.6B | MISS | -78.3% | |
| Current AccountQ4 2025 | -$190.7B | -$211.0B | BEAT | +9.6% | |
| Fed Policy | |||||
| Fed Interest RateMay 7, 2026 | 3.75% | 3.75% | IN LINE | -- | |
| Tenor | Yield | 1D Chg | 1W Chg | 1W Ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M | 3.69% | -- | -2bps | 3.71% |
| 1Y | 3.70% | -4bps | -4bps | 3.74% |
| 2Y | 4.08% | +6bps | +30bps | 3.78% |
| 5Y | 4.26% | +11bps | +34bps | 3.92% |
| 10Y | 4.60% | +11bps | +29bps | 4.31% |
| 20Y | 5.14% | +11bps | +26bps | 4.88% |
| 30Y | 5.12% | +9bps | +21bps | 4.91% |
| Spread | Now | 1W Ago | 1M Ago | 52W Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2s10s | +52bps | 53bps | 65bps | 20-73bps |
| 3M-10Y | +91bps | 62bps | 33bps | -27-91bps |
| 10s30s | +52bps | 60bps | 65bps | 26-69bps |
| 5s30s | +86bps | 99bps | 110bps | 47-123bps |
| Metric | Value | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 10Y Real Yield | 1.96% | FRED DFII10 |
| 10Y Breakeven | 2.64% | Nominal - Real |
| 30Y TIPS Yield | 2.47% | Feb 19 auction |
| TIC LT Flows (Jan) | $15.5B | vs $71.6B est - MISS -78% |
| Security | Last | High Yield now / prev / 6A avg |
WI | Tail now / prev / 6A avg |
BTC now / prev / 6A avg |
Dealers now / prev / 6A avg |
Directs now / prev / 6A avg |
Indirects now / prev / 6A avg |
Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.673%prev 3.694% · 6A 3.703% | — | — | 3.09xprev 2.94x · 6A 2.81x | 25.5%prev 31.1% · 6A 33.7% | 6.1%prev 6.3% · 6A 6.5% | 59.2%prev 52.6% · 6A 50.5% | Strong — BTC 3.09x well above 2.81x avg; yield eased to 3.673%; indirects surged to 59.2% |
| 6M Bill | Apr 30 | 3.707%prev 3.707% · 6A 3.725% | — | — | 2.95xprev 2.89x · 6A 2.93x | 23.5%prev 29.5% · 6A 26.5% | 9.0%prev 9.8% · 6A 9.1% | 59.2%prev 51.1% · 6A 56.0% | Solid — BTC 2.95x in-line; yield 3.707% below avg; indirects recovered to 59.2% |
| 2Y Note | May 26 | 4.071%prev 3.812% · 6A 3.629% | 4.071% | 0.0bpprev +0.1 · 6A +0.2 | 2.640xprev 2.65x · 6A 2.62x | 12.3%prev 11.9% · 6A 12.8% | 30.1%prev 31.6% · 6A 29.2% | 57.6%prev 56.5% · 6A 57.9% | Solid — on the screws (0.0bp tail); BTC 2.640x above 2.62x avg; indirects 57.6% near 57.9% avg; dealers lean below avg at 12.3% |
| 3Y Note | Jun 9 | 4.192%prev 3.965% · 6A 3.633% | — | +0.6bpprev -1.2 · 6A -0.4 | 2.54xprev 2.68x · 6A 2.67x | 16.9%prev 13.3% · 6A 12.7% | 20.1%prev 11.9% · 6A 23.4% | 63.0%prev 74.8% · 6A 63.9% | Soft · tail flipped positive after last month's stop-through; indirects pulled back sharply from 74.8%; dealers absorbed more at 16.9% vs 12.7% avg; yield 3.965% well above 3.633% 6A avg |
| 5Y Note | May 27 | 4.182%prev 3.955% · 6A 3.780% | 4.181% | +0.1bpprev +0.5 · 6A +0.6 | 2.34xprev 2.33x · 6A 2.34x | 12.3%prev 12.7% · 6A 12.0% | 12.3%prev 15.0% · 6A 25.0% | 74.9%prev 72.3% · 6A 63.0% | Strong — indirects surged to 74.9%, far above 63.0% avg; tail nearly eliminated at +0.1bp vs +0.6 avg; BTC 2.34x on the screws; directs soft at 12.3% vs 25.0% avg |
| 7Y Note | May 28 | 4.29%prev 4.175% · 6A 3.992% | 4.291% | -0.1bpprev +0.5 · 6A +0.3 | 2.52xprev 2.51x · 6A 2.48x | 10.4%prev 11.6% · 6A 11.3% | 11.2%prev 30.0% · 6A 27.5% | 78.4%prev 58.4% · 6A 61.2% | Strong — stopped through at -0.1bp; indirects surged to 78.4%, far above 61.2% avg; BTC 2.52x above avg; directs collapsed to 11.2% vs 27.5% avg but indirects more than offset |
| 10Y Note | Jun 10 | 4.538%prev 4.468% · 6A 4.232% | 4.539% | -0.1bpprev +0.4 · 6A +0.6 | 2.57xprev 2.40x · 6A 2.44x | 9.5%prev 12.0% · 6A 11.4% | 12.3%prev 24.1% · 6A 21.1% | 78.2%prev 64.0% · 6A 67.6% | Strong — stopped through -0.1bp; BTC 2.57x above 2.44x avg; indirects surged to 78.2% vs 67.6% avg; dealers low at 9.5%; directs soft at 12.3% but foreign demand more than offset |
| 20Y Bond | May 20 | 5.122%prev 4.883% · 6A 4.786% | 5.122% | 0.0bpprev — · 6A +0.5 | 2.55xprev 2.68x · 6A 2.62x | 9.4%prev 8.6% · 6A 10.0% | 22.9%prev 20.2% · 6A 22.8% | 67.7%prev 59.6% · 6A 57.2% | Solid — indirects surged to 67.7%, far above 57.2% avg; 0.0bp tail; BTC 2.55x slightly below 2.62x avg; 5.122% reflects higher market rates post-Moody's |
| 30Y Bond | Jun 11 | 5.020%prev 5.046% · 6A 4.835% | 5.008% | +1.2bpprev +0.5 · 6A -0.2 | 2.33xprev 2.30x · 6A 2.41x | 14.7%prev 11.7% · 6A 10.7% | 25.3%prev 21.7% · 6A 22.6% | 59.9%prev 66.6% · 6A 66.7% | Weak — tail +1.2bp vs -0.2 6A avg; indirects fell to 59.9% vs 66.7% avg; dealers absorbed at 14.7% vs 10.7% avg; BTC 2.33x below 2.41x avg |
| 10Y TIPS | Mar 31 | 1.896%prev 1.940% · 6A 1.936% | — | — | 2.47xprev 2.38x · 6A 2.37x | 7.5%prev 12.2% · 6A 11.6% | 24.0%prev 20.4% · 6A 23.8% | 68.5%prev 67.4% · 6A 64.6% | Strong — BTC 2.47x above avg; dealers low at 7.5%; real yield 1.896% vs 1.936% 6A avg |
| Country | GDP | CPI | Unemp | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 0.7% | 2.4% | 4.4% | 3.75% |
| UK | 1.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.75% |
| Germany | 0.4% | 1.9% | 6.3% | 2.0% |
| France | 0.2% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
| Japan | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 0.75% |
| Canada | -0.6% | 2.3% | 6.7% | 2.25% |
| Italy | 0.8% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 2.0% |
Type any TradingView symbol in Exchange:TICKER format